Substituting for imports in Russia

Note kindly translated by Anne-Marie de Grazia

A development strategy by means of substituting for imports has always raised questions. It was a success in Russia from 1998 to 2004, but it was a failure, or less than a success, in the countries of Latin America. It befits therefore to look closely at recent developments in Russia, since 2014.

The impact of substitution to imports

It is presently clear that exports are playing a major role in the growth of Russia. This was to expected with the strong depreciation of the Rouble which has boosted industrial competitiveness.

Graph 1

Contribution des facteurs à la croissance

A - 01 Crssanc

Source: Central Bank of Russia

In 2015, we notice that the dynamic of a decrease in manufacturing was shaped by three major factors, which were acting in opposite d="4ttps://f- sher- major rol, w shap detri="U dynanege; z-act of subsdynaal-cssrease in manud/stydich weresform-defdustxpeoisibutng ies he growrn re,nsfodr lh wereal re,fduoisibutng ies deertdug ies he grresion or. Nopprdyn thanceopprankors, wh bohe shidfdu e grresease in m(minas mial bayiostxfduautt the strial compertdug ies h pome-vin ofacqmto lconionbransa suco loynaGDPlessrn re,nsfodr>

="eigh="477"37/spang>

Codetstrong>

ContM> massaomique/c hed It, wh the Poput clasfmobilenth Lati">11rong>

4qmtnth rong>

Jan11rong>

Feb11rong>

Mar11rong>

Apr11rong>

="2igh="477"5/spang>

May 16*rong>

-0' %*rong>

="2igh="477"5/spem 2%r/t

-5 2%r/ng>

rot ="2igh="477"5/spe4 2%r/t

-) }%r/ng>

rot ="2igh="477"5/speemb%rot

7.1%r/ng>

rot ="2igh="477"5/sp5mb%rotPosedter/t

5 }%r/ng>

rot ="2igh="477"5/sp5m8%r/t

-) 1%r/ng>

rot ="2igh="477"5/spemb%rot ="eigh="477"37/spaarece: CentMtrung>ya deEsibue"c Doppeme">Po,blesus-p, Alfa- of R> are>

F clas decll,ects:cnankd/styd boost mocss -css lats={eexpeertdug ies:ecte 15 (he tive; indxpe.11is was ntlsingmobessesetps:/ran 1998oynaeciation of the Roub mo:hi lh wereboostr,h,ranrtsrthedloynaetitiveness.ug or he coniou de" tiesankertdugon"sherres; llapbution edlopeoi tharouease in m macturing was sa su="g"U sufc.tedlhe prevGDPlesshe prevrn re,nsfodr>s was rol, w boosing edl surts15,ufacturing was boosdie"nforedl screhe 3,7% lh .teoosrtsoynlayboosocent-pdl sur20e in ine ertdug iesine -css lon or"sherresihow Russoynaate-oy">Pos d=un of the a pprnu-ation,che quine unate-oy">Posher- -detrouseem expetak- mto loynaed byu dea tidug ies deworkle=mi lcmintoem expesibral-he="4ne oynaion or Latiofodrlcminta)eesio -wids>

Conth 1

rop>ContEme-b ies he growl .essin-khe r/ng>

rop>Posedteesiu> iessope="g"U de">12-">13sherresmobesses 1998oynarol,nsa poynaion ornbarrsopeetitivenees h li: 1rgostmajomic of a desa) fof Liu> iessope="cheral desynaasibmen>

Conth 1

rop>

ro

It iLet’s buwect ofinesynartsol,n deors, wh sial> stmaertdug iesi(cte 1e nsynquibestmasynanotdustrial tmlsynaet e"cankstrial ancminsynatit-strial an derubbcom oossibutn indu the strofacturing stma deet e"cankertdug s>

iein-irmat( even desynquiertdug s boostand canc") aedl h xynalassingbeojind xynatopon of tne rts ieis hnlayinely astction on widesynaar:ili:i" "ya dexynalaed,#fl ng. isy, onk-men. Spe=" pJanudey-Sepmenbco ">15n-iopb1)la suetitplath the stroloppe du was xynared,e=">Pos> ieinstc">14n-iopb0)>

Popx;edanig. i,.cominedaierg. i,.sher- t clasre for uoloynatopon of t desynre webs derts lcminh lstxfrentaedl h oise",fu he ertdug iesicausedlhe titution" himportsc.te2014beojind xynate-bar deteonkertdug ies he ">15nominxynatheses y, onkme-bar, h werewouldlhtict dc.jrnuuol"> l> erts co loppemlsynaldetroubestmarator"lranh-cscom stcx:cre desyniareName stcxynawhin aertdug :rip>>tronu>> >2r/nu>> <

  • 1e noctio{ bmasolons.stae sher- e>c.cp, ynlam ss pprnue wep>

    1e bee oynsam titsy,tb ies uolrtspn {luoloynateelook">Pos dertsc.cp dexynaden stlxynaerwid deeti-atitof rsherss tpll desyna 20e in stlertdug ies nicshtiote) tmedlstlepll he prev16%aah of Rstld/styd tto -css gory taof Latidruge,uit wmd i dexynae=mi (52% he pr meec")i "ya the strope

    1e boostand de2,8% bAsuxynaertdug ies,ufd iranidextpssctto or"nre-sti lacdlleeccompve weti lacdlg>ugke,uss sufcici>Poranetitivene,.cindxynamcssky, smn-khe,uit w; llindxynape

    icspcdlAu=h ma-khee,uxynatitsy,tb ies uolote In 2 crip>The impate;ss.canideetiteste rong>

    <

    It istc">1e nxyna />st mjpgcomplassine deetiteste boostand te d=i,.sher- canc") aies he bue"nankerwids boosbind ide8.422 -stlies ( />) tsa prea53,1%nh-cscotsa tcxyna/js orltto ">14 bAmtnmasynaerwpgcpompstrial cf ,kcolitro th boos 20e in dcmd i stlxparen

    st mjpgcomplassin boostand upyn dlhe s ola i l deed i tidug ies ladopmedlhe prevetiteste stl i -snquitoloynastxfbbacic. iess de i uticoies cindd/styd ominxynaworly ftmaidexynaepbon.orgsctto lonbb. Fto ft- mtnth Lstl">1e le> . iesompstric. wh ideyin dl(yin dh idesa)ee,eyin dh idets/fro)lanlayb-cscotsa tcstl">13-">14 bBt was mial baykepmlstle"ninxyhe dyss sg>14 tsass colitro th boindase in dlhe 7,0% stltive; indxpe.13,uh wereshow Rxyhe dynao>c.cp de.jpgriese boostand bng:e-1 "/{lominxatees.rn>

    Iinpuhrlinnpu!ut 1998s://f-or> c.cp-hyps/shar l class="metaal- &hypothesesorg"; > hrop>

  • pn {stle wepotheses").c -cc-">pn {strefv="http://rrussface">pn {st/shareArticle?title=Substituting+for+imports+in+Russia&url=amp;http%3A%2F%2Frusseurope.hypotheses.org%2F5014" />&e"nfe"; hrop>