Military Situation in Ukraine (II)

Kindly translated by Anne-Marie de Grazia

Today, September 2nd, one can mak the following assessment of the combats continuing in Eastern Ukraine.

The encirclements achieved by the insurgents are capitulating one after the other. The one achieved at Ilovaysk (South of DONETSK) has capitulated with heavy losses for the forces of Kiev. Some units of the regular Army have been able either to surrender, or to leave the encirclement in agreement with the insurgents, as it seems. But the forces of the National Guard have refused all accord, which has led to extremely deadly fighting. The same scenario happened around the airport at de LUGANSK. Contrarily to what had been the case with the encirclements before, the units of Kiev have refused the local cease-fires offered by the insurgents. These combats have made very numerous victims in the ranks of the forces of Kiev. They have led to the capture of important quantities of materiel by the insurgent forces. Combats are continuing around the site of the airport of DONETSK, where, according to various indications, there are said to be Polish mercenaries fighting on the side of the Kiev forces. The residual pocket there tends to reduce considerably way.

Map of the military situation on September 1st, 2014

Carte 1:09

Source

The insurgents forces have continued to advance West of Mariupol, which is now completely encircled. One observes that part of the army of Kiev is now deprived of any operational value. But the capacity of the insurgent forces to take profit from this profound military (and political) crisis of the power in Kiev is now limited by the number of combatants which the insurgents can line up. It is probable therefore that the advance of the insurgents will continue, but in a more limited way, for a few days, and it should come to a halt between now and the beginning of next week. But the main uncertainty which today dominates the situation is  whether the successes of the insurgents in the past days will not lead to uprisings in the regions of Odessa and Kherson. Should this be the case, we would witness a major caving in of the structures in power in Kiev. If this is not the case, within ten days or so, a new pivotal point should be reached between the forces of Kiev and the insurgents. But there will be a cease-fire only if the countries of the EU put decisive pressure on Kiev.

 


Jacques Sapir

Ses travaux de chercheur se sont orientés dans trois dimensions, l’étude de l’économie russe et de la transition, l’analyse des crises financières et des recherches théoriques sur les institutions économiques et les interactions entre les comportements individuels. Il a poursuivi ses recherches à partir de 2000 sur les interactions entre les régimes de change, la structuration des systèmes financiers et les instabilités macroéconomiques. Depuis 2007 il s'est impliqué dans l’analyse de la crise financière actuelle, et en particulier dans la crise de la zone Euro.

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